3 Trade Ideas That Go Against Today's "Everything's Fine" Rally

I just wrapped my the Big 3 segment on Schwab and had to share some contrarian thinking with viewers:

Everyone's buying this bounce. Here are three trade ideas going the other direction.

When markets gap up after geopolitical chaos and everyone breathes a sigh of relief... when "defensive" plays start rolling over just as volatility spikes above 20... when major financials can't hold breakouts despite being in a higher rate environment...

That's when you know the real opportunity is on the other side.

I outlined three contrarian trade ideas that go directly against today's "everything's fine" narrative:

The "fake financial strength" fade - Major bank rolling over hard. Everyone sees financials as beneficiaries of higher rates, but they're missing the private credit pressure and lending slowdown. Trade idea: When this thing tests key support, consider put spreads out to May 15th for those looking to play the breakdown.

The "broken entertainment kingdom" setup - Major media company just printed another failed test at psychological resistance. Management chaos, momentum dead, and sitting right on a technical cliff. Trade idea: If it breaks through that key level, put spreads for April 17th could capture the move lower.

The "defensive rotation reversal" - Here's the kicker: Fast food giant is supposed to be the safe haven play. But defensive trades are getting hit just as volatility explodes. Trade idea: Put spreads for April expiration to play the breakdown of this "protective" trade.

Look, I know what you're thinking. "Don, VIX is above 20 - shouldn't we be looking at defensive plays?"

That's exactly why these setups caught my attention.

When the obvious defensive play starts breaking down during a volatility spike, that's not a contradiction. That's a signal that something bigger might be brewing.

WATCH THE FULL SCHWAB BREAKDOWN HERE

To your success,

Don Kaufman