He Was Right. He Still Got Carried Out.

Until 2 weeks ago, Leopold Aschenbrenner ran the best performing large fund on earth.

He turned roughly $225 million into billions on one conviction, that AI would swallow every chip, every megawatt and every data center that could be built. Through June he was up 439% net.

Thursday morning he sold the entire public book, longs and shorts together, in a single block to Citadel before the open. He didn't choose to. His prime brokers wanted collateral he no longer had.

Several of the names he was forced to dump bottomed that same Wednesday and ripped the next day.

He was right. The tape got there about 18 hours after he stopped being able to wait.

Reported leverage on that book ran as high as 4 times. That number, not the thesis, decided which week he had to be right in. The market picked a different one.

I watched this same movie for 15 years from inside a brokerage, at much smaller size. Different zeros, identical autopsy. A good read, inside a position built so an ordinary drawdown ends the trader before the move shows up.

You can't pick the week the market agrees with you.

You can decide, before you enter, how long you're able to wait. That comes down to 2 numbers, and when you don't write them down, your broker picks for you.

Settle it before your next entry instead of during it.

The 2 numbers that decide how long you can wait

To your success,
Don Kaufman