How I Just Turned 64 Cents Into 203% Profits Overnight

(GOOGL Earnings)

Author

Don Kaufman
October 30, 2025

Don Kaufman here. 

Yesterday at 3 PM, I placed a single options trade on Google earnings.

Cost: 64 cents per contract.

This morning: 203% profits.

Here's exactly how it happened - the precise strikes, the mathematical reasoning, and why tonight's Amazon and Apple earnings could deliver the same systematic profits.

The Exact Google Setup That Delivered 203%

While everyone was obsessed over the Fed announcement yesterday, I was laser-focused on something far more important: Google's $18 expected move.

That number isn't my opinion. It's calculated by billions of dollars in options flow. When the at-the-money call plus the at-the-money put equals $18, that's the market telling you exactly where Google is expected to move by Friday's close.

My trade: 7.5-point wide butterfly spread centered at the $290 strike - Google's upper expected move level ($272 + $18 = $290).

The setup:

  • Buy 1 $282.5 call

  • Sell 2 $290 calls

  • Buy 1 $297.5 call

  • Net cost: 64 cents

  • Max profit potential: $7.50 per contract

  • Time to expiration: 48 hours

This morning, Google opened at $291 - nearly dead center of my profit zone. 

Why This Isn't Luck - It's Mathematical Edge

I've been trading earnings flips for years using this exact methodology. The statistics are compelling: