I'm Going Live This Morning

At 9:15 Eastern this morning I'm showing you the brokerage statements, all of them.

Nineteen wins and zero losses, just over a year since inception. One unit across all nineteen windows produced $12,789, with an average window of $673, a biggest of $1,445 and a smallest of $320. Those aren't backtested numbers, they're fills.

The record isn't the interesting part, though. The reason for the record is.

The trade is a Christmas tree. You sell expensive, fear-inflated skew and buy cheap volatility at the same time, and direction is irrelevant. The market can go up, it can go down, it can sit there and do nothing for a month, and the structure doesn't care.

So what has to happen for you to lose? The market has to sell off roughly 22 to 25% before this even reaches a loss at expiration. Think about that for a second. Liberation Day didn't get there, the tariff selloff didn't come close, and the last time the S&P moved like that was 2020.

ThinkOrSwim priced the probability on the current live trade at 99.87%, another platform showed 99.5%, and the strategy averages around 98%.

Now here's what most people won't tell you. A loss is coming eventually, because nineteen and zero doesn't run forever. When it happens I'll show you that day the same way I've shown you these nineteen.

The one that's open right now collected over $1,300 in credit on day one, and I'm breaking that position down live.

Windows open ten to twenty times a year, the average hold is just over 30 days, and a lot of them get closed early. Four steps: an alert hits your phone, you place it, you live your life, you close when I say.

9:15 AM Eastern. I'll be in the room.

Meet me in the room at 9:15 AM ET 

To your success,
Don Kaufman