I’m Not Reading a Single Analyst Note This Week.

Wednesday is the most important earnings night of the year.

Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all report after the close. 

Three of the most watched companies on earth delivering their numbers on the same night. 

Every analyst on Wall Street has a model. Every financial media outlet has a preview. Every fanboy on Reddit is going to spend this week telling you what to watch for on the call, what the whisper number is, and whether AI spend is accelerating or decelerating.

I could give two craps about any of it.

There is exactly one number I look at before any earnings trade. 

The expected move. Whatever that number equals is what the options market is pricing as the likely distance of the move. 

Thirty billion dollars of capital set that number. I am not going to argue with it.

That number tells me where to build the trade. Not the revenue beat. Not the margin guidance. Not what Satya Nadella says about Copilot on the call. The distance the market expects the stock to travel is the only input I need.

This week I put on a butterfly in Tesla before earnings. $0.70 to put on. Tesla moved exactly where the expected move said it would. That trade closed at 164% in one day.

Wednesday I will be looking at the expected moves on Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon. 

Same framework and structure. Each trade under $100 to put on. My risk is exactly what I paid. Defined going in.

The full framework is in the Judgment Days replay. 

How I read the expected move, how I build the trade, and how I have been doing this every single earnings season for years.

Watch the Judgment Days Replay

To your success,

Don Kaufman

P.S. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all move big on earnings. The options market is already pricing in exactly how big. That number is available to anyone who knows where to look. The replay shows you exactly how to use it.