My 35-Cent Bet on SPX Weakness

(And Why Market Skew Made This a No-Brainer)

Author

Don Kaufman
September 30, 2025

Don Kaufman here. 

I was staring at two butterflies this morning and the market wanted to charge me $1.15 for a call butterfly that I could get for 35 cents on the put side. 

Same damn trade. 

This is exactly why most traders lose money - they don't understand how skew is robbing them blind.

Here's what happened. 

We were in one of those "slop fest" days where the S&P was basically dead flat, down a whopping 9 handles. 

🗂️ The Setup Box – NVDA Breakout Squeeze

NVDA is sitting right below all-time highs. My position is structured for a 3-day breakout trade. 

The thesis is simple: if we touch or break the highs, algos pile in, call buying rips, and we squeeze higher. 

Target levels are around 185+, with weekly calls about $2 OTM likely to go ITM if the squeeze triggers. The risk is if NVDA stalls below highs – no breakout, no momentum.

🔥 Flow/Internals Glance – PATH & AI Mania

UiPath (PATH) exploded +15% on nothing more than saying the word "Nvidia" in a collaboration headline. 

Options sizzle index 26x normal, 50% volume executed at market (pure retail chasing). Overwhelming call-buying pressure, volume skewed to the ask/above. This is retail FOMO at its purest form, a “fund fest.”

📈 Levels & Triggers – META, TSLA, NVDA

📌 META

  • Already broke below expected move last week.

  • If 720 cracks this week, stock is wide open to 700.

  • Current move being amplified by order flow and partnership headlines (CoreWeave compute).

📌 TSLA

  • EV tax credit of $7,500 expires Sept 30.

  • Orders surged into Q3, deliveries intentionally deferred to Q4.

  • Near-term: expect messy reaction to deliveries, massive implied volatility pricing like earnings.

📌 NVDA

  • Watch for breakout squeeze above all-time highs triggering algo momentum.

  • “Algo monkeys” flipping to buy calls if highs breach – self-reinforcing order flow