While you watched Greenland headlines, SPX did exactly what I said it would

Let's get something straight here.

I spent the entire weekend talking about one thing: 6835 on the SPX. That was the level. That was where things would get interesting if we broke through it.

And you know what happened this morning when all hell broke loose with the Greenland nonsense?

We hit 6835 (6833.29 to be exact). Bounced right off it.

This marketplace is incredibly efficient, even when everyone thinks it's going crazy.

Look, I get it. The futures opened down huge. Trump's talking tariffs. Everyone's an expert on Danish territory all of a sudden. The VIX spiked to 20.69.

But here's what actually happened: The entire week's expected move - $82 - occurred in one minute. 

We dropped right to the lower edge of where the market was supposed to trade, and that's exactly where we found support.

This isn't Greenland. This isn't about tariffs. This is about levels.

I've been discussing these SPX levels ad nauseum. 

Just watch my video from Friday (I’ve got reciepts). 

Two weekend videos in a row dedicated to looking at the S&Ps and getting a feel for where that volatility box is.

The expected move for this four-day trading week was $82. We closed Friday at 6940. That puts the lower expected move at 6858.

What's the difference between 6858 and where we actually traded? About three points.

After all the overnight drama, there you are - right on the lower edge of the expected move.

Now, I know people want to talk about all the different reasons why. There's tariffs, there's this, there's that. Look, there's a lot of crap going on.

But may I ask you a brief question? 

If it's going to be trade war related, why should we give a damn about tech? Why are we beating up Nvidia because they're buying H100s in Europe? Absolutely not.

The marketplace sees what I see.

We're not sitting here freaking out. Why should the market freak out? It's sitting where it was expected to.

When you go out there and say you're supposed to have about an $82 expected move, and literally in the first minute we hit it, we slip below it - don't get me wrong, we're in a dangerous position - but we're basically trading right on it because it's the lower edge of the expected move.

And quite frankly, it means more than anything else on the screen.

But I know - it's Greenland, it's tariffs, it's taco time with Trump.

Block out all that crap because that's the kind of crap you're just wasting your time on. 

You're wasting your time, you're wasting your energy.

Look at the lower edge of the expected move. 

If there's a rally today, we're gonna rally right above it. We're gonna come up here, do a little dance, make a little love, and sit on the expected move tonight.

Now, here's where things get interesting.

I said if we break through 6835, all hell will break loose. That's when you'll see the VIX wake up and say "Huh, what? I'm waking up."

We break overnight lows at 6846, then the VIX is gonna explode. But until then, we're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

The volume told the story perfectly.

When we broke through 6835, the volume surged. You're doing about 15,000 contracts in two minutes on the futures. 

That surge is literally us pushing off the lower edge of the expected move.

So what does this teach you?

When markets are moving like this - less attention to what you think, more attention to the order flow. Don't get caught up in the minute-to-minute news cycle.

"US Supreme Court does not rule on Trump's tariffs today. Yay, we rallied." That's the kind of headlines I'm talking about when I say don't get caught up in any of this crap.

The fact of the matter is simple:

You're literally on the lower edge of the expected move. There's nothing more to say.

If we break a little bit higher, I've given you levels for that. You break a little lower, I've given you levels for exactly that.

But sit tight and let this thing develop.

For those trading zero DTE today, heads up:

There's still 25% implied vol for the remainder of the day. That's the equivalency of a $35 move in the SPX. So there's still quite a bit of volatility packed in.

This is not as intense as people thought it was gonna be. Everybody just calm down. You're on the lower edge of the expected move.

The marketplace is efficient. Even when it looks like chaos.

That expected move framework I've been talking about? It works. The levels I called over the weekend? They held.

While everyone else is becoming a Greenland expert, stick to what actually matters: levels, volume, and where the market is supposed to trade.

Because in the end, that's what drives price action. Not 34 troops and a dog protecting an island nobody wants to visit anyway.

To your success,

Don Kaufman