One Out of Three. Hall of Fame in Baseball. Retirement in Trading.

A .333 batting average gets you into the Hall of Fame.

In trading if you are right one out of three times you are probably bankrupt. 

The math does not work when your winners and losers are the same size. 

You need to be right more than you are wrong just to break even. Most traders never figure that out until it is too late.

But there is a strategy where the baseball math actually holds.

The judgment days framework. 

Four times a year earnings season opens a specific window. 

Every major stock faces its verdict on a specific day at a specific time. I know which ones. I know when. 

And the only number I care about going in is the expected move.

Each trade costs less than $100 to put on. 

My maximum risk is exactly what I paid. 

When it works the return is multiples of that cost. When it does not work I lose what I paid and nothing more.

That asymmetry is why the one in three math holds. 

One big winner covers two losses and then some. 

This week a Tesla butterfly closed at 164% in one day. The trade cost $0.70. That is what right looks like when the structure pays you properly.

You do not need to be right most of the time. You need to be right enough times with a structure that pays you properly when you are.

This week Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all report Wednesday night. 

Three judgment days on the same evening. Each one under $100 to put on.

The full framework is in the Judgment Days replay. 

How I find the expected move, how I size the butterfly, and what the track record looks like across three consecutive earnings windows.

Watch the Judgment Days Replay

To your success,

Don Kaufman

P.S. In Q3 2025 the window included Microsoft at 297%, Google at 203%, and Palo Alto at 182%. Q1 2026 brought CoreWeave at 247% and Coinbase at 193%. One in three is all it takes when the winners look like that. The replay shows how the magic happens.