Somebody Dropped Serious Money on Chaos This Morning

It’s Fed day.

And I hope you’ll join me and Garrett Baldwin from 2PM-4PM EST for our LIVE Fed coverage.

Everyone is welcome, members and non-members.

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You can also CLICK HERE to join the event at 2PM.

But let me give you a preview of what where my head is at.

I'm sitting here on generator power because my island decided to have a power outage for absolutely no reason. 

First thing I see when my system comes back up? Some algorithm just carpet-bombed VIX calls.

6,800 contracts. Gone. Bought to open at the opening bell.

That was enough to spike the VVIX, the measure of option demand on the VIX.

Someone is either hedging something massive or betting volatility is about to explode. There's literally no other reason.

This wasn't retail panic. This was systematic, algorithmic, expensive. The kind of flow that tells you somebody knows something.

The Setup Nobody's Talking About

Eight trading sessions. Same exact range.

The S&P is doing absolutely nothing while everyone's loading up positions like we're trending. Most people think they're trading in autonomy - "I'm trading Broadcom, screw the S&P." That could not be more inaccurate.

When this range breaks, every single trade on your screen moves. Caterpillar hitting new highs? Walmart gamma squeezing? Doesn't matter. When volatility picks up, nothing trades independently.

We started the week with a $100 expected move on the S&P. Still sitting at $82. That's not normal decay. That's the market saying you haven't seen anything yet.

Why Powell Might Not Want to Make Enemies

Fed funds futures at 90-whatever percent for a 25 basis point cut. Everyone knows Powell's cutting rates.

But I was thinking this morning - maybe Powell doesn't want to piss anybody off on his way out. Guy's retiring in May.

A week ago I'm thinking he comes out hawkish. "This is my Fed" - drops the mic, walks off. Now I'm thinking maybe he just wants to get through this without anyone coming after him post-retirement. It's not worth making enemies this far into your career.

That actually makes sense.

Dead Volume Before the Storm

Options volume yesterday was 49 million contracts. Sounds impressive until you realize the 2025 average is 61 million. We're seeing holiday-level volume before the biggest Fed meeting in months.

No hedging activity. No professional flows. Just dead markets.

Except for that VVX buying this morning. Someone's positioning for chaos.

Join Us Live: 2-4 PM Eastern

Garrett and I are going live during the Fed announcement. Main trading room, simulcast for Market Masters.

This isn't post-meeting analysis. This is real-time Fed reaction, real-time trades, real-time chaos as it happens. No delay, no commentary after the fact - live decisions as volatility hits.

The smart money already positioned. The question is whether you're ready for whatever Powell delivers.

2-4 PM Eastern. Don't miss this one.

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To your success,

Don Kaufman