The AI Trade Is Imploding

Don Kaufman here. 

So this morning the Dow was ripping 700 points. Nvidia beat earnings, Jensen Huang said Blackwell demand is "off the charts," and you know what I'm hearing all over Twitter? "The bear thesis is falling apart."

Everyone's partying. Tech stocks flying. Meta up 10%. Tesla up 4%. Dogs and cats living together - it's all gonna be okay because Nvidia saved the world.

But here's what I was actually seeing while everyone was celebrating.

The Numbers Told the Real Story

Here's what I was seeing that morning that everyone missed: Nvidia had about a $14 expected move after earnings. The actual move? Only about 10 bucks.

You got half of nothing.

So while everyone was celebrating this as a massive win, I'm thinking - if Nvidia can't even hit its expected move on a "beat," what does that tell you?

The marketplace was telling you something: We don't give two beeps about Nvidia. It was just the excuse to buy the dip.

And a few hours later? Boom. Nvidia gave up the gains and went negative. The numbers called it before the headlines caught up.

Here’s what else that tipped me off…