The Warning Signal Nobody's Talking About

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Don Kaufman here. 

So I'm watching everyone obsess over NVIDIA earnings this week, and honestly, I get it. But there's something else happening that's got my attention.

I heard the term "CDS" more in the last two months than I've heard in the previous 15 years.

CDS stands for credit default swaps - basically insurance contracts against firms going belly up. These were a huge part of the 2008 mess, then disappeared from trading conversation.

Until now.

What's Got My Attention

I still talk to a few institutional traders, and I was genuinely surprised to hear this coming up again. There's been significant activity in credit default swaps lately happening in OTC markets you can't see.

When institutional money starts buying insurance against corporate defaults after 15 years of not caring? That's worth paying attention to.

Goldman Sachs and the other big desks will make a derivative contract on anything you want. The fact that these conversations are happening tells me smart money is getting nervous.