The Win Rate Question That Makes Me See Red

Author

Don Kaufman
September 19, 2025

Don Kaufman here

Someone asked me my win rate on a webcast yesterday and I turned red.

Seriously. Like, I get so pissed at that question it's almost as bad as when somebody says "quadruple witching." My blood pressure spikes and I want to reach through the screen.

You know why that question makes me furious? Because who the hell cares what your win rate is?

I could be wrong 90% of the time and still crush it. 

Macro In 60 Seconds

  • Dollar firming, bonds weaker.

  • SPX/NDX flat despite Apple bid.

  • Volatility unusually docile given size of two‑sided flows.

  • Risk: Ball of risk continues to “roll forward” → big unwind possible later Q4.

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