Don Kaufman here. 

If you’re here for fireworks and confetti, I’m about to pour a bucket of ice water over your head. The S&Ps are up 173 points. CNBC is having a field day. Twitter is lit up like Times Square.

And me? I’m sitting here with a coffee, watching people lose their minds over… what? A move that’s about as shocking as rain in Seattle.

Let’s break it down, because if you’re trading—hell, if you’re even watching this market and thinking you’ve witnessed history—you need a dose of reality.

“Unprecedented”? Please.

Look, I get it—big numbers get big headlines. But “unprecedented”? Give me a break.

We’re maybe triple the daily expected move. That’s not unprecedented. That’s the market doing exactly what it’s supposed to do after a big news weekend.

Any piece of news could have done this—tariffs, tweets, or a squirrel running across the NYSE floor.

If you’re impressed by this, I have to ask: have you been awake the last few months? Moves like this are becoming Monday’s breakfast.

Why News Is Mostly Noise

Let’s put aside the headlines, the politics, the “Yay, Scott!” cheerleading for Treasury secretaries.

You know what? None of it matters.

Not if you’re trading what’s actually happening instead of what you want to believe is happening.

The market loves to drive right to the upper edge of the expected move. That’s its “happy place of risk.”

We’re not here because of some genius negotiation or a magic handshake in Switzerland.

We’re here because markets are machines that respond to uncertainty and then mean-revert.

So, you’re wondering, “Don, what would impress you?”

How about a move twice the expected range? Until then, save your applause.

The Real Lesson: Don’t Trust the Euphoria

Everyone’s got their “bullish” hats on.

But if you’re surprised that a few stocks are down today, you haven’t been paying attention.

We’re outside the expected move—but that’s just statistics. It’s not a reason to chase, not a sign that the coast is clear.

I’ll say it again:

This market could have gone wildly the other way.

If you think today “de-risked” everything, take a look at the VIX. Take a look at the options chain.

Risk is still here, volatility is still high, and the market is just as likely to rip your face off as hand you free money.

The “Winners” Today? Don’t Be Fooled

Look at Meta or Amazon popping. Does that have anything to do with tariffs? Nope.

That’s statistical arbitrage at work.

The S&P pops and so does everything in the S&P, even if the news is irrelevant to the business.

If you’re buying just because you see green, congratulations—you’re trading with the herd.
And the herd gets slaughtered.

Liquidity: The Only Thing That Matters

Let’s talk about what actually matters: liquidity.

It’s coming back, but it’s not great.

If you don’t have real market makers stepping up, you’re trading on fumes.

And when the music stops, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked.

Volatility Isn’t Dead—It’s Just Napping

You think the “de-risking event” is over?

We’ve still got a 19-handle VIX, and the options market is pricing in big moves for the rest of the week.

Tomorrow’s CPI could blow this all up.

If you’re betting the farm on today’s move, you’re just asking to get smoked.

My Playbook? Stay Contrarian, Stay Sane

Listen—I’m under-allocated. I’m patient. I’m waiting for opportunities, not chasing them.

If you’re an investor and you feel like you “missed out,” relax.
If you’re a trader and you avoided getting run over, congrats.

This is a market for pros, not for FOMO.

I’ll look to sell bond puts at better prices, maybe set up some butterflies in the SPX—but only if I get paid for the risk.

Everything else? Let the crowd chase the headlines.

Final Thought: Trade What Is, Not What You Wish

Turn off the TV. Stop reading the “unprecedented” headlines.

The market is doing exactly what the market should do.
If you’re looking for a hero, look in the mirror and decide if you want to get paid for risk—or just be entertained by the noise.

To your success,

Don Kaufman 

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